| 2009
Market Outcomes;
2010 - 2014 Scenario Forecast |
|
| |
Report
Figures and Tables |
|
|
|
PAGES
|
|
|
Executive
Summary |
11
- 16
|
|
|
. |
|
|
2.1
|
2009
Market |
|
|
|
2.1.1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................................
2.1.2 Total Market Size By Market Segment.......................................................................................................
2.1.3 On-Grid Analysis By System Power............................................................................................................
2.1.4 On-Grid By Customer Type......................................................................................................................
2.1.5 On-Grid Analysis By State ......................................................................................................................
2.1.6 On-Grid Analysis By Application Surface.....................................................................................................
|
|
|
2.2
|
On-Grid
Market Segments |
|
|
2.2.1 Residential Retrofit ................................................................................................................................
2.2.2 Residential New Build..............................................................................................................................
2.2.3 Corporate Segment................................................................................................................................
2.2.4 Government (including Military)................................................................................................................
2.2.5 Utility .................................................................................................................................................
|
|
|
2.3
|
Project Financing |
|
|
|
2.3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................
2.3.2 PPA Funded Projects in 2009 and First Half 2010
........................................................................................
2.3.3 Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) Contract Review
and Deal Terms*..............................................................
2.3.4 2009/Early 2010 Projects and PPA Contract Commercial
Terms .....................................................................
2.3.5 Commercial Segment Financiers...............................................................................................................
2.3.6 Residential Segment Financiers................................................................................................................
* start prices c/kWh and escalators
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
PV
Incentive Programs and Terms |
77-118
|
|
|
. |
|
|
3.1
|
Federal
Programs
|
|
|
|
a) Clean Renewable Energy
Bonds ............................................................................................................
b) Solar America Initiative
(SAI)...............................................................................................................
c) Solar America Showcases
...................................................................................................................
d) Solar America Cities
...........................................................................................................................
3.2 State and Utility Funding Programs...........................................................................................................
3.3 Tax Incentives
.....................................................................................................................................
|
|
|
3.2
|
State
and Utility Funding Programs |
|
|
|
3.2.1 California .....................................................................................................................................
3.2.2 New Jersey ..................................................................................................................................
3.2.3 Other Major State
Programs ............................................................................................................
(a)
Program Funding in States with RPS Solar/DG Set-aside ..................................................................
(b)
2009 Key State Programs Driven by RPS Solar/DG Set-Asides
...........................................................
3.2.4 Other States.................................................................................................................................
|
|
|
3.3
|
Tax
Credits |
|
|
3.3.1 Federal.......................................................................................................................................
a) Investment
Tax Credit (ITC).............................................................................................................
b) Modified
Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS) and Bonus Depreciation
..........................................
c) Clean
Renewable Energy Bonds (CREB) ..............................................................................................
3.3.2 State........................................................................................................................................
a) State
Tax Credits Overview .............................................................................................................
b) Residential
State Tax Credit ............................................................................................................
c) Corporate
State Tax Incentives .......................................................................................................
d) State
Sales Tax Incentives .............................................................................................................
e) State
Property Tax Incentives .........................................................................................................
|
|
|
|
Federal
and Regulatory Issues |
119-158
|
|
|
|
|
4.1
|
American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) - Stimulus Fund |
|
|
|
4.1.1 Department of
the Treasury ...........................................................................................................
(a) Renewable
Energy Grants ................................................................................................................
(b) Expanded Clean
Energy Bonds (CREBs) ..............................................................................................
(c) Bonus Depreciation
for Commercial Installations ...................................................................................
(d) Qualified
School Construction Bond (QSCB)..........................................................................................
4.1.2 Department
of Energy ..................................................................................................................
(a) Renewable
Loan Guarantees............................................................................................................
(b) State
Energy Program (SEP) ...........................................................................................................
(c) Energy
Efficiency and Conservation Block Grants (EECBG) ....................................................................
(d) Solar
Energy Technologies Program (SETP) .......................................................................................
(1)
High Penetration Solar Deployment Projects ...........................................................................
(2)
Solar America Cities Special Projects .....................................................................................
4.1.3 Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) ..........................................................................................
4.1.4 General
Services Administration (GSA) ............................................................................................
4.1.5 Department
of Transportation (DOT) ..............................................................................................
4.1.6 Department
of Veterans Affairs (VA) ..............................................................................................
4.1.7
Department of Defence (DOD) ......................................................................................................
(a)
Facilities Sustainment, Restoration and Modernization (FSRM)
Program ..................................................
(b)
Military Construction Program (MILCOM) ..........................................................................................
(c)
Energy Conservation Improvement Program (ECIP) ............................................................................
(d)
US Army: Operation and Maintenance Program .................................................................................
(e)
Military Effort Toward Renewable (Outside of ARRA Funding)
...............................................................
4.1.8 ARRA Stimulus
"Buy American" Clause..............................................................................................
|
|
|
4.2
|
State
Renewable Portfolio Standards Developments 2009 - 2010 |
|
|
|
4.2.1 State RPS Policy
Overview..............................................................................................................
4.2.2 Changes in State
RPS Policies Over The Last 18 months (by state)
Changes
in 2009 .................................................................................................................................
Changes
in 2010 .................................................................................................................................
Possible
Changes in 2010......................................................................................................................
4.2.3
RPS Solar Set-Aside Policies............................................................................................................
a)
Solar Specific RPS (set-aside) Policies by State .................................................................................
b)
Solar Set-aside Applicable Utilities ...................................................................................................
c)
Projected PV Installed Capacity with RPS Solar Set-Asides
...................................................................
d)
Solar Technologies for Set-Asides ...................................................................................................
4.2.4
Penalties and Enforcement Mechanisms.............................................................................................
4.2.5 Methods of Compliance
with RPS .....................................................................................................
a)
Solar Set-aside Compliance Methods.................................................................................................
b)
Solar Renewable Energy Credits (REC) for Compliance Market
................................................................
c)
Utilities' SREC Purchase Programs .....................................................................................................
4.2.6 New Jersey
a)
SREC Market ................................................................................................................................
b)
New Jersey Utility SREC Financing Programs .......................................................................................
4.2.7 Solar REC Prices
in Solar Set-aside States.........................................................................................
|
|
|
4.3
|
State
Net Metering Rules |
|
|
4.3.1 Net Metering Overview
.................................................................................................................
4.3.2 Main Policy Changes
in 2009 and Early 2010......................................................................................
4.3.3 Potential Upcoming
Changes in 2010................................................................................................
|
|
|
|
Electricity
Tariffs and Structures |
159
- 172
|
|
|
. |
|
|
5.1
|
Introduction |
|
|
|
.
|
|
|
5.2
|
Electricity
Rates by State in 2009 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.3
|
Electricity
Rate Structures |
|
|
|
.
|
|
|
5.4
|
Time
of Use (TOU) Tariff Rates |
|
|
|
. |
|
|
5.5
|
Future
Electricity Rate Trends |
|
|
|
.. |
|
|
|
Downstream
Channel Structure and Volumes in 2009 |
173
-196
|
|
|
. |
|
|
6.1
|
Market
Channel Structure and Volumes |
|
|
|
. |
|
|
6.2
|
Module
Suppliers Market Shares (Residential/Non Residential) |
|
|
|
.. |
|
|
6.3
|
Inverter
Suppliers Market Shares |
|
|
|
.
6.3.1 Non Residential Inverters .....................................................................................................................
6.3.2 Residential Inverters ...........................................................................................................................
|
|
|
6.4
|
Distributors
(Wholesalers) |
|
|
|
6.4.1 Distributor Mergers
and Acquisitions (2005 - 2010) ...................................................................................
6.4.2 Major Specialist PV
Distributors .............................................................................................................
|
|
|
6.5
|
System
Integrators |
|
|
|
6.5.1 Non-Residential ................................................................................................................................
a)
2009 Installations............................................................................................................................
b)
Module Supplier Shares of Largest Non-Residential System Integrators
in 2009 ...........................................
c)
2010 Market and Beyond ..................................................................................................................
|
|
|
|
.
6.5.2 Residential ......................................................................................................................................
a)
2009 Installations ...........................................................................................................................
b)
Module Supplier Shares of Largest Residential System Integrators
in 2009 .................................................
c)
2010 Market and Beyond .................................................................................................................
.
6.5.3 2010 Survey of System Integrators......................................................................................................
|
|
|
6.6
|
Downstream
Corporate Mergers and Acquisitions (2009
- Early 2010) |
|
|
|
. |
|
|
6.7
|
Capital
Raised by Downstream Companies (2009
- Early 2010) |
|
|
. |
|
|
|
Prices
and Solar Module/Inverter Volumes in 2009 |
197
- 214
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.1
|
2009/Early
2010 Pricing Environment |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.2
|
Installed
PV System Pricing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.3
|
Large
Project Pricing (2009/Early 2010) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.4
|
California
Residential Installed System Pricing By Module Supplier |
|
|
|
|
|
7.5
|
Installed
System Prices for California Residential System Integrators |
|
|
|
|
|
7.6
|
Installed
System Prices for California Non-Residential System Integrators |
|
|
|
|
|
7.7
|
Module
Factory Gate Pricing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.8
|
Product
Volumes |
|
|
7.8.1 California Residential: By Module
Supplier Category...................................................................................
7.8.2 Solar Modules ...................................................................................................................................
a)
Certifications ..................................................................................................................................
b)
Volumes by Model ...........................................................................................................................
7.8.3 Inverters..........................................................................................................................................
a)
Certifications .................................................................................................................................
b)
Volumes by Model ...........................................................................................................................
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
US
Market Forecast (2010 - 2014) |
220
- 260
|
|
|
. |
|
|
8.1
|
Global
and Domestic Scenarios |
|
|
|
. |
|
|
8.2
|
Demand
Outcomes |
|
|
|
8.2.1 National Market Demand
....................................................................................................................
8.2.2 Market Demand By Segment
...............................................................................................................
|
|
|
8.3
|
Market
Prices |
|
|
8.3.1 Factory Gate Module Prices
................................................................................................................
8.3.2 Installed PV System Prices
.................................................................................................................
|
|
|
8.4
|
Renewable
Portfolio Standard Driven Market Demand (2010 - 2014) |
|
|
|
8.4.1 Solar Set-Aside Driven
Market.............................................................................................................
8.4.2 Utility-Owned DG Projects Toward
RPS..................................................................................................
8.4.3 Utility-Scaled Projects
Toward RPS.......................................................................................................
|
|
|
8.5
|
Status
of Market Segment Economics |
|
|
8.5.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................
8.5.2 Economic Analysis for
Top State Markets..............................................................................................
8.5.3 Economic Analysis of Incentives
for Top State Markets ...........................................................................
a)
Residential .............................................................................................................................
b) Non-Residential ......................................................................................................................
8.5.4 Sensitivity Analysis by
Top State Markets............................................................................................
8.5.5 Emerging Grid Parity ........................................................................................................................
|
|
|
8.6
|
American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act |
|
|
8.6.1 Renewable Loan Guarantees
.............................................................................................................
8.6.2 Federal High-Performance
Green Building by General Services Administration ..............................................
8.6.3 Renewable Energy Grants
................................................................................................................
8.6.4 Repealing Penalty for
Subsidizing Renewable Energy Financing ................................................................
8.6.5 Expanded Clean Energy
Bonds (CREBs) ...............................................................................................
8.6.6 Energy Efficiency and
Conservation Block Grants (DOE) .........................................................................
8.6.7 State Energy Program (DOE)
............................................................................................................
8.6.8 Extended Bonus Depreciation
for Commercial Installations ......................................................................
8.6.9 Department of Interior
Recovery Investment .......................................................................................
8.6.10 Department of Defense
Fund ..........................................................................................................
|
|
|
8.7
|
Unrisked
National Order Book by Project |
|
|
|
|
|
8.8
|
US
Market Summary |
|
|
|
|
|
Report
Figures and Tables |
|
