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Solar Module Price Highlights: November 2008

Price Summary

As the world now faces a more difficult economic environment, the solar industry is not immune from also having to address these challenges. Those familiar with the industry will already appreciate how a tightening of credit and also in consumer discretionary spending, together with the slower rate of new home builds, all will increase the size of the marketing challenge. Notwithstanding this, this industry will remain on an enviable growth path.

There is one other issue that sometimes receives less attention, but is certainly noteworthy on this web page dealing with prices. As a still emerging, but already highly global, industry the other factor of high relevance has been the movement in exchange rates over the last two months.

Movements in exchange rates impact the relative attractiveness of where to manufacture solar products and also the prices paid for those products by companies that market them in regional markets. The key currencies in play in this industry are the US dollar, European Euro, China Yuan and Japanese Yen.

Over recent months, there has been a major strengthening in the Japanese Yen, while the dollar has also delivered a strong performance. Meanwhile, the Euro has seen a period of major weakening. These effects impact the magnitude of the differential between the US and European indices on this page. Due to these moves, the size of the differential between these two important markets has reduced significantly. These adjustments are of relevance during this key season of the year (particularly in the Downstream), when buyers and sellers of solar modules within the PV chain are in negotiations for next year's product supply. The outcomes of these negotiations will ultimately impact the retail prices on this survey in 2009.

Within this month's results, a survey of 1,413 online retail prices, there were 43 price increases and 79 price decreases. The last time decreases outpaced increases was in May.

These moves left the US index unchanged at $4.85 per watt while the European index was down one euro cents at €4.71 per watt. The drop in the Euro index would have been more pronounced had the United Kingdom based retailers, pricing in pounds sterling, not been in the index. The UK itself is a small PV market.

Lowest Prices ($/Wp)

The tracking of the lowest price band in the survey is measured against the number of prices below $4.75 per watt.

As of November 2008, there are currently 228 solar module prices below $4.75 per watt (€3.75 per watt) or 16.1% of the total survey. This compares with 218 prices below $4.75 per watt in October. The lowest retail price for a multi-crystalline solar module is $4.10 per watt (€3.24 per watt) from a US retailer. The lowest retail price for a mono-crystalline module is $4.24 per watt (€3.35 per watt), also from a US retailer.

The lowest thin film module price is at $2.98 per watt (€2.35 per watt) from a Germany based retailer. As a general rule, it is typical to expect thin film modules to be at a price discount to crystalline silicon (for like module powers). This thin film price is represented by a 60 watt module.

Note once again, that these prices are based upon the purchase of a single solar module and prices are exclusive of sales taxes. Information on volume discounts, factory gate and PV system pricing is available as part of our consultancy services.

Price Index Context

The module cost represents around 50 - 60% of the total installed cost of a Solar Energy System. Therefore the solar module price is the key element in the total price of an installed solar system. All prices are exclusive of sales taxes, which depending on the country or region can add 8-20% to the prices, with generally highest sales tax rates in Europe.

LEGAL DISCLAIMER:

SOLARBUZZ DOES NOT AND CANNOT REPRESENT OR WARRANT THAT THE DATA IN THIS RETAIL PRICE SURVEY ARE ACCURATE OR COMPLETE. SOLARBUZZ DISCLAIMS ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE DATA. THE DATA ON THIS WEB PAGE ARE PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

YOU RELY ON THE ANALYSIS AT YOUR OWN RISK. SOLARBUZZ SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONSEQUENCES OF ANY DECISIONS RESULTING FROM THE USE OF THE DATA INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, LOSSES OR DAMAGES RESULTED THEREFROM. NOTHING IN THE DATA SHALL BE CONSIDERED AS AN ENDORSEMENT, PROMOTION OR ADVERTISING OF ANY COMPANY.

125 Watts and Higher Module Index Retail Price Per Watt Peak
	USA	Europe
	US$/ watt	Euro €/ watt
Nov 2008	4.85	4.71
Oct 2008	4.85	4.72
Sep 2008	4.85	4.69
Aug 2008	4.83	4.71
Jul 2008	4.83	4.70
Jun 2008	4.82	4.70
May 2008	4.81	4.71
Apr 2008	4.81	4.71
Mar 2008	4.82	4.73
Feb 2008	4.81	4.74
Jan 2008	4.83	4.74
Dec 2007	4.83	4.77
Nov 2007	4.83	4.76
Oct 2007	4.84	4.77
Sept 2007	4.84	4.78
Aug 2007	4.85	4.79
July 2007	4.84	4.78
June 2007	4.85	4.78
May 2007	4.86	4.79
Apr 2007	4.87	4.80
Mar 2007	4.88	4.80
Feb 2007	4.88	4.79
Jan 2007	4.88	4.82
Dec 2006	4.88	4.82
Nov 2006	4.88	4.82
Oct 2006	4.87	4.83
Sept 2006	4.86	4.83
Aug 2006	4.86	4.83
July 2006	4.85	4.83
June 2006	4.83	4.83
May 2006	4.82	4.84
Apr 2006	4.77	4.82
Mar 2006	4.73	4.82
Feb 2006	4.73	4.81
Jan 2006	4.71	4.80
Dec 2005	4.70	4.80
Nov 2005	4.68	4.80
Oct 2005	4.66	4.79
Sept 2005	4.64	4.79
Aug 2005	4.63	4.79

Note: As a guide, the industry is looking to drive module prices down to $1.5-2Watt over the next decade, if it is to make large inroads in to the grid tied electricity market, without subsidy.

The All Module Index is volume weighted to take account of the fact that the majority of market demand (in Megawatt terms) occurs in the high power module segment.

Number and direction of Worldwide Solar Module Price Changes

PRICE CHANGES	Nov 2007	Dec 2007	Jan 2008	Feb 2008	Mar 2008	Apr 2008	May 2008	Jun 2008	Jul 2008	Aug 2008	Sep 2008	Oct 2008	Nov 2008
Number of Prices that Increased	23	23	30	39	39	15	29	74	64	28	38	45	43
Number of Prices that Decreased	39	16	34	46	20	28	31	40	21	16	16	21	79
Number of Prices Unchanged	1517	1537	1513	1522	1537	1562	1581	1331	1356	1364	1436	1468	1291

Note: Price changes (in US dollar terms) caused only by an exchange rate movement, do not count as a price change in the above table. i.e. there has to be a movement in the local currency in question to register a change.

Our survey also tracks average prices by power segment analyzed by 125 watts and above, 40 - <125 watts and <40 watt modules. These price differentials can vary with market demand and manufacturing mix. Lowest prices per Watt can be found in the 125 watts and above segment, as manufacturers can minimize their unit (per watt) manufacturing cost. This information is available through our consultancy services.

Size of Solar Module Survey Base

SURVEY BASE	Nov 2007	Dec 2007	Jan 2008	Feb 2008	Mar 2008	Apr 2008	May 2008	Jun 2008	Jul 2008	Aug 2008	Sep 2008	Oct 2008	Nov 2008
Number of Companies in Survey	79	79	79	78	74	73	73	72	72	70	71	71	71
Number of Prices Tracked	1579	1576	1577	1607	1596	1605	1641	1445	1441	1408	1490	1534	1413
Number of Models	552	555	561	596	596	595	610	580	598	593	610	622	595

Most Solar Module prices are represented by Companies marketing from the United States and European Countries, which display retail prices on their respective Company web sites. These companies market solar products globally. There is less public display of prices in the key Japanese market. However, the survey does include companies from USA, Germany, United Kingdom, South Africa, Brazil, Mexico, Australia, France, Switzerland, Greece, Korea and Canada. Exchange rate conversions from local currency in to US dollars and Euros are made on the date of each survey.

In order to retain consistency in the data, the prices are based on the purchase of one solar module and are the lowest price displayed on the Internet site for that quantity (sometimes, this price is described as a 'sale price'). Lower prices that are available on multiple purchases are held outside the main index, in order to retain the consistency of the Price Index. Most sales companies offer discounts on multiple unit purchases and some companies offer to match the lowest price of competitors. The prices are exclusive of local taxes.

The typical Solar Industry Marketing structure is when a Solar Module Manufacturer sells to a Wholesaler (also known as "Distributor" or "Value Adding Reseller"), who then sells to a Retailer (also known as "Dealer"), who sells to the public or solar user. Value Adding Resellers often also sell direct to the solar user. In circumstances of a large order, the manufacturers may sell direct to the solar user, usually a commercial or government entity.

The price represented on the survey is the Retailer price to the public or solar user. There are some rare examples where Wholesalers and even Manufacturers display prices and sell direct to the public on their web sites.

Major Solar Module Brands*

Major Product Brands covered in the survey are listed below. Click on the underlined names to go to the Company Home Page websites or click here to go to names, addresses and contact details for the full list of Solar Cell Manufacturing Companies.

Companies with a light grey background manufacture modules only, the remainder manufacture Solar Cells and Modules.